Coronavirus : Canalys considers 2 scenarios of the evolution of the PC market
Taking into account the crisis of the coronavirus, Canalys has built two scenarios of possible development for the global market for PC this year. In the current state of things, the least bad of the two has an 80% chance of being achieved.
If there is no longer any doubt that the epidemic of Coronavirus affecting the global sales of computers in 2020, still remains the question of in what proportions. To attempt to answer this question, the research firm Canalys to put together two scenarios. The first anticipates a minimal impact of the health crisis, with a return of the full capacity of the production lines in April of next year. The second provides for a maximum impact with a recovery of manufacturing capacity in the month of June. The difference between the one and the other equates to nothing less than 5,1 points of decay for the PC market.
In the less bad cases, sales will reach 382 million units this year. They would fall back as well to 3.4% from 2019, the year in which an increase of 2.7% was found. In detail, the deliveries plongeraient of 10.1% in the first quarter, from 8.9% in the second, and then is forecast to rise by 1.6% in the third quarter and 12.8% in the fourth. A recovery in 12 months could be then envisaged in 2021 with an average annual growth of 0.6% between this year and 2024. Being more affected than the rest of the world in terms of demand, the chinese market would take more time to restart.
If everything happens for the worse, it will be necessary, however, expect a fall of 8.5% to 362 million units in the number of PC’s sold. Again, the situation will be tense in the course of the first and second quarters, with, in addition, levels of declines in abyssal : 20.6% of deliveries in the least between January and march, and then -23,4% between April and June. It will have to wait for the third (5.5%) and fourth (+2,5%) quarters for things to be worked out. Quite logically, the recovery is expected to be higher (+3%) in 2021 than in the least bad of the scenarios. An average annual rise of 1.6% is expected to follow until 2024.
Canalys estimated 20% probability that his gloomy expectations come true, compared to 80%, therefore, for the more ” optimistic “.